BANGKOK, Nov 28 (TNA) — Kasikornbank (Kbank) expected the Thai economy to grow by only 2.7% year on year in 2019 due to export decline, trade war and strong baht.
Kobsit Silpachai, Kbank’s capital market research head, said the bank revised the projection downwards from 2.8% and expected exports to drop by 1% regarding the unexpectedly slow economic growth at 2.4% in the third quarter of this year.
If the trade war between China and the United States continues, the economic growth rate would be 2.7% and exports would contract by 2% next year, he said.
The economic stimulation measures of the government would be short-lived and consumers’ purchasing power would then subside, he said.
Kbank predicted baht appreciation would continue because investors would need safe assets including strong baht resulting from Thailand’s low inflation and current account surplus of as much as US$30 billion and the US would cut its policy rate twice next year.
“Thailand has structural problems. Its society is aging. Its household debt is huge. Its economy is fragile. Although the Bank of Thailand can cut the interest rate, it will not be much helpful,” Mr Kobsit said. (TNA)
