BANGKOK, March 3 (TNA) – The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) has warned that the escalating global trade war presents a significant “time bomb” for Thai exporters, despite minimal perceived initial impact.
The council anticipates a subsequent price war, which would severely disadvantage smaller Thai producers, hindering their ability to compete internationally. Thailand’s January 2024 trade figures showed exports reaching $25.277 billion, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, alongside a 7.9% import surge to $27.1572 billion, resulting in a $1.8802 billion trade deficit.
The TNSC forecasts export growth of 1-3% for 2024, but highlights several key risks contributing to a precarious outlook. These include increased domestic investment with low local content utilization, a flood of Chinese goods due to US tariffs impacting Thai SMEs, limited access to soft loans, outdated production, a lack of unique product identity, a shortage of skilled labor in technology-driven industries, and the absence of a unified policy direction. These factors create a volatile environment for Thai exporters.
In response, the TNSC advises Thai exporters trading with the US to develop risk mitigation plans, explore alternative markets, and engage in continuous dialogue with importers and commercial attachés. They also urge maximizing existing economic cooperation frameworks and free trade agreements (FTAs), such as RCEP, and expediting negotiations for the Thai-EU and ASEAN-Canada FTAs.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, TNSC chairman, emphasized that while direct tariff impacts may be limited, indirect consequences are substantial. The expansion of the trade war will lead to a diversion of goods from the US market, sparking a price war that will render smaller Thai producers unsustainable, transforming the current environment into a “time bomb” for Thailand’s export sector. -819 (TNA)
